Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Using Computer Simulations

Different probability distribution methods were employed to determine the flood frequency analysis using computer simulations. Many probability distributions including Gumbel, lognormal, log-Pearson type iii, General Extreme value have been tried to fit the data. The length of record for most of the stations is over 10 years (chosen from 1956 0nwards). The data was procured from J.R.M.Hosking for various project sites. The common time period of 1956 onwards has been chosen only to avoid the effect of interception of basin due to construction of storage reservoir and was also subject of flood data. The best fitting distribution works out to be General Extreme Value Distribution. Gumbel's distribution ranks poorly among different probability distributions. A trial version of probability software is used to evaluate the best fit distribution and parameters of distribution

Case report on tuberous sclerosis

Tuberous sclerosis is a genetic multisystem disorder characterized by widespread hamartomas in several organs, including the brain, heart, skin, eyes, kidney, lung and liver.  The affected genes are TSC1 and TSC2, encoding hamartin and tuberin respectively.  Most features of tuberous sclerosis become evident only in childhood, limiting their usefulness for early diagnosis. We report a case of 3months old female child with seizures and hypo-pigmented skin lesions. The case is rare as it is documented in a family affected continuously in three generations involving four members

Silibinin-mediated metabolic reprogramming attenuates pancreatic cancer-induced cachexia and tumor growth.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the US. Cancer-associated cachexia is present in up to 80% of PDAC patients and is associated with aggressive disease and poor prognosis. In the present studies we evaluated an anti-cancer natural product silibinin for its effectiveness in targeting pancreatic cancer aggressiveness and the cachectic properties of pancreatic cancer cells and tumors. Our results demonstrate that silibinin inhibits pancreatic cancer cell growth in a dose-dependent manner and reduces glycolytic activity of cancer cells. Our LC-MS/MS based metabolomics data demonstrates that silibinin treatment induces global metabolic reprogramming in pancreatic cancer cells. Silibinin treatment diminishes c-MYC expression, a key regulator of cancer metabolism. Furthermore, we observed reduced STAT3 signaling in silibinin-treated cancer cells. Overexpression of constitutively active STAT3 was sufficient to substantially revert the silibinin-induced downregulation of c-MYC and the metabolic phenotype. Our in vivo investigations demonstrate that silibinin reduces tumor growth and proliferation in an orthotopic mouse model of pancreatic cancer and prevents the loss of body weight and muscle. It also improves physical activity including grip strength and latency to fall in tumor-bearing mice. In conclusion, silibinin-induced metabolic reprogramming diminishes cell growth and cachectic properties of pancreatic cancer cells and animal models

MUC16-mediated activation of mTOR and c-Myc reprograms pancreatic cancer metabolism.

MUC16, a transmembrane mucin, facilitates pancreatic adenocarcinoma progression and metastasis. In the current studies, we observed that MUC16 knockdown pancreatic cancer cells exhibit reduced glucose uptake and lactate secretion along with reduced migration and invasion potential, which can be restored by supplementing the culture media with lactate, an end product of aerobic glycolysis. MUC16 knockdown leads to inhibition of mTOR activity and reduced expression of its downstream target c-MYC, a key player in cellular growth, proliferation and metabolism. Ectopic expression of c-MYC in MUC16 knockdown pancreatic cancer cells restores the altered cellular physiology. Our LC-MS/MS based metabolomics studies indicate global metabolic alterations in MUC16 knockdown pancreatic cancer cells, as compared to the controls. Specifically, glycolytic and nucleotide metabolite pools were significantly decreased. We observed similar metabolic alterations that correlated with MUC16 expression in primary tumor tissue specimens from human pancreatic adenocarcinoma cancer patients. Overall, our results demonstrate that MUC16 plays an important role in metabolic reprogramming of pancreatic cancer cells by increasing glycolysis and enhancing motility and invasiveness

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation

Importance of pre-impact crustal structure for the asymmetry of the Chicxulub impact crater

Impact craters are observed on the surfaces of all rocky planets and satellites in our Solar System(1); some impacts on Earth, such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary one that formed the Chicxulub impact crater(2,3), have been implicated in mass extinctions(4-12). The direction and angle of the impact - or its trajectory - is an important determinant of the severity of the consequent environmental damage, both in the downrange direction ( direction bolide travels) and in the amount of material that enters the plume of material vaporized on impact(2,13-15). The trajectory of the Chicxulub impact has previously been inferred largely from asymmetries in the gravity anomalies over the crater(2,3). Here, we use seismic data to image the Chicxulub crater in three dimensions and demonstrate that the strong asymmetry of its subsurface correlates with significant pre-existing undulations on the end-Cretaceous continental shelf that was the site of this impact. These results suggest that for rocky planets, geological and geomorphological heterogeneities at the target site may play an important role in determining impact crater structure, in addition to impact trajectories. In those cases where heterogeneous targets are inferred, deciphering impact trajectories from final crater geometries alone may be difficult and require further data such as the distribution of ejecta

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods: We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings: The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation: By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods: We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings: The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation: By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17

Abstract Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation